France's trade deficit: energy, competitiveness or specialisation?

In 2025, France imported more goods than it exported to the tune of €−53.7bn, according to the national accounts disseminated by Eurostat — after a historic trough of €−131.8bn in 2022. Customs, which measure the same trade with other conventions, report €−69.2bn for 2025: this page first explains why the two figures differ, before answering the question that matters.

That question is the cause. The deficit narrowed by €78.1bn between 2022 and 2025: is it energy prices falling back, the exchange rate helping, or the productive base regaining ground? Without the product breakdown, one cannot decide; this page mobilises it.

Two measures, one trade. Customs count goods crossing the border: €614.7bn of exports and €703.6bn of imports in 2025, the latter valued “cost, insurance and freight” (CIF), that is transport included up to the French border. The CIF/FOB balance — CIF imports, “free on board” (FOB) exports — is €−88.9bn; restated FOB/FOB, it is €−69.2bn. The national accounts start from these flows and correct them to retain only changes of ownership between residents and non-residents, which excludes in particular merchanting and some flows without transfer of ownership: €−53.7bn. None of the three figures is wrong; they do not measure the same thing.

Over the long run, the national-accounts goods balance was in surplus from 1992 to 2003 — up to €29.9bn in 1997 — then in deficit every year since 2004, averaging €−41.2bn between 2010 and 2019. The 2022 shock (€−131.8bn, or −5.0% of gross domestic product) is twice as deep as the previous 2011 record (€−60.3bn). In 2025, the deficit is worth −1.8% of GDP.

Energy explains most of the movement. According to the 2025 annual analysis of the Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects (DGDDI), France's energy supplies cost €71.8bn in 2025, down −15.7% over a year, after −33.1% in 2023 and −17.6% in 2024 — a fall due to prices, which nonetheless leaves the bill 14% above its 2019 level. The balance of energy goods alone improved by €11.2bn in 2025, more than the total balance.

Excluding energy, the picture is less favourable: the manufacturing balance deteriorated by €−2.4bn in 2025, dragged down by food processing (€−4.0bn) and chemicals, despite an exceptional year for aerospace (€67.9bn of exports, +18.3%). The FOB/FOB balance remains €11.1bn below its 2019 level: the energy crisis is absorbed, the structural gap is not.

In 2025, the goods balance is €−53.7bn in the national accounts and €−69.2bn at Customs; the energy bill is €71.8bn, still 14% above 2019; the manufacturing balance is deteriorating. The economy grows by 0.8%, with an employment rate of 69.3% on an annual average (69.0% in the second quarter of 2026).